Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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UPDATED: April 28, 2023
2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Musical
Christian Borle and J Harrison Ghee in “Some Like It Hot” on Broadway
Marc J. Franklin
Weekly Commentary: For months now, “Kimberly Akimbo” has been viewed as the presumptive winner of this category – and for good reason, given its award-winning success off Broadway and the raves it earned in its Broadway transfer. But over the course of the season, other shows have emerged to give it some competition.
A new outing from a team of Tony regulars, “Some Like It Hot” scored favorable reviews and has started to find its footing at the box office. It also, by many accounts, handles the sensitive topics of gender identity and race gracefully and inclusively, if not entirely perfect for some viewers. Given the size of the production compared to the intimate “Kimberly Akimbo,” there’s a solid chance “Some Like It Hot” might rack up the most overall nominations of 2023.
“Shucked,” meanwhile, is the surprise contender, largely unheralded when it landed on Broadway but now buzzy thanks to savvy marketing and its crowd-pleasing comic antics onstage. It’s also an entirely original storyline, which is the kind of thing nominators (and many voters) like to reward.
Meanwhile, the just-opened “New York, New York” didn’t win over many critics, but it’s got enough going on, from a large team of well-liked talent (John Kander, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Susan Stroman) that it seems sure to nab a spot. The category’s fifth slot, assuming there is a fifth nom, is up for grabs, but “& Juliet” has a zippy original book in its favor and has been selling well since the fall.
The Tony Awards eligibility cut-off date for the 2022–23 season is April 27, 2023, for all Broadway productions which meet all other eligibility requirements. The 2023 Tony Awards nominations will be announced on May 2, 2023.
The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
- “KPOP” (Circle in the Square Theatre)
- “A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical” (Broadhurst Theatre)
All Eligible Shows (Unranked)
Tony Awards Predictions Categories
BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY
About the Tony Awards
The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.