Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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UPDATED: April 20, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
HBO
Weekly Commentary: Still no decision on where Brian Cox will campaign for “Succession” but based on conversations with industry insiders, a lead drama actor run is likely in the cards, despite three (confirmed) episode showings. Essentially, the Scottish actor would become the Emmy version of Anthony Hopkins, who won the best actor Oscar with very limited screen time for “The Silence of the Lambs” (1991).
There is precedent. Christopher Lloyd won lead drama actor for a single episode of “Road to Avonlea” back in 1992.
Cox’s acclaimed performance as Logan Roy has received multiple accolades for the HBO drama, including those two Emmy nominations for the second and third seasons for lead actor (drama). He was nominated alongside his co-star Jeremy Strong, who plays his eldest son Kendall, and who won for the show’s second season.
Emmy rules for 2023 state, “Only performers appearing in less than 50% of the eligible episodes can submit in the guest performer categories.” Assuming Cox doesn’t appear in any of the remaining episodes, the 76-year-old Scottish actor will have three options available to choose from. He can stay in lead actor (drama) with Strong, switch to supporting actor (drama) alongside Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen and Alan Ruck, or vie for guest actor (drama) recognition, facing likely contenders Arian Moayed and Alexander Skarsgård (who might qualify for supporting this time around). If Cox appears in any of the two further episodes (in a flashback, for instance), he would no longer qualify for guest.
And then there’s Pedro Pascal, with three wildly different performances available for the Television Academy to consider this year. He has his guest comedy actor bid for hosting NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” and two spectacular turns in the science fiction genre — “The Mandalorian” from Disney+ and “The Last of Us” from HBO.
Pascal and the rest of the field are facing Saul Goodman, portrayed by Bob Odenkirk, for the final season of “Better Call Saul” that aired last summer. While fair to point out the show’s 46 series noms, none of which have resulted in a win, is the clear hurdle for the veteran actor to overcome. Still, like former final season winners across the Emmy spectrum, such as Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”), you can never be sure how sentimental the Emmys will get for a respected actor.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Paddy Considine — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Harrison Ford — “1923” (Paramount+)
- Kevin Costner — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
- Kieran Culkin — “Succession” (HBO) **
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Matthew Rhys — “Perry Mason” (HBO)
- Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Bryan Cranston — “Your Honor” (Showtime)
- Antony Starr — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Forest Whitaker — “Godfather of Harlem” (MGM+)
- Jeremy Renner — “Mayor of Kingstown” (Paramount+)
- Pedro Pascal — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Joshua Jackson — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
- Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- Karl Urban — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | VARIETY SKETCH, SERIES, SPECIALS |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.