The strong showing by Barbie and Oppenheimer on their first weekend was cheered by theater owners and could be partially due to people watching both seemingly very different movies. But they have more in common than you might think. And the strikes could derail the theater recovery.
The Barbie Movie and Oppenheimer lead a great weekend for theaters
Theaters and movie studios are cheering the success of Barbie and Oppenheimer in their first weekend in theaters. Barbie garnered $155 million in domestic box office sales in the first three days of the weekend, while Oppenheimer pulled in $82.4 million. Along with other new releases in the Mission Impossible and Spiderman franchises, the weekend’s gross receipts are expected to top $300 million, the highest of 2023.
Michael O’Leary, President and CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners, was understandably pleased with the performance, commenting:
“It was a truly historic weekend and continues the positive box office momentum of 2023. More importantly, it proves once again that America loves going to the movies to see great films.”
He is right to be pleased with theaters’ recovery from the pandemic. 2022 and 2023 have seen year-over-growth in receipts in each quarter except for the fourth quarter in 2022. For example, Q1 2023 receipts were 27% higher than in Q1 2022, and Q2 2023 was 15% higher than one year earlier. 2022 saw domestic receipts of $7.4 billion versus $4.5 billion in 2021.
The Barbenheimer effect
Though Barbie and Oppenheimer are, on the face of it, dramatically different, enthusiasm gathered momentum for watching both movies back-to-back. Those subscribing to the Barbeneimer approach figured that sitting through another long, more serious movie wouldn’t seem so bad after watching Barbie. Oppenbarbies felt that getting the long movie over first, followed by the “palette-cleansing” Barbie was the best approach.
The movies have more in common than you might think
Whichever order people watch the movies, they might be surprised that the two have more in common than they might think. Dr. Nolan Gasser, the architect of the Music Genome Project that powers Pandora, has turned his attention to video as co-founder and Chief Genomic Officer of Katch Entertainment Officer. Katch coded both The Barbie Movie and Oppenheimer and looked to see which data overlapped for both films. Here are some of the common themes the company found between them:
- The Unfolding of Intellectual Themes
- The Squad on a Mission
- Imaginative & Creative Storytelling
- Virtuosic Acting
- A Courageous Lead
- An Existential Crisis
- A Feeling of Wonder
- A Character-Driven Story
- A Frenzied, Head-Spinning Script
- Elaborate Costumes
Moreover, the company says movies like A.I. Artificial Intelligence and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 also share these themes.
Katch’s approach could have some important implications in the TV industry. Normally, recommendations stay close to a person’s watch history and obvious viewing interests. In other words, a service tends to recommend an action movie to someone that enjoys Mission Impossible and Jack Ryan. Katch data could help a service better exploit its library by broadening its recommended content and helping deepen a user’s engagement with the service.
The theater revival could be short-lived
Though the recovery in theater ticket sales is encouraging for the industry, it could be short-lived. The writer’s and actor’s strikes could devastate ticket sales, and the impact could be felt before the end of the year.
Unfortunately, the industry is far from stable after the devasting impact of the pandemic. For example, the nation’s biggest theater owner AMC is working to convert some preferred equity units (APEs) into common stock. Doing so enhances the company’s ability to raise cash, which Ian Aaron, AMC’s CEO, views as critical:
“If we are unable to raise equity capital, the risk materially increases of AMC conceivably running out of cash in 2024 or 2025, or of AMC being unable to satisfactorily refinance and stretch out the maturity of some of our debt (which is required of us beginning as early as 2024).”
A court rejected AMC’s plan after a shareholder lawsuit resisted the idea because it would dilute common share values.
If the cash flow from ticket revenue dries up, it could precipitate a crisis for AMC and other theater owners from which they might never recover.
